Antimony trioxide,Flame retardant masterbatch,Additive Masterbatches: 10/01/2008

A freefall in the nickel price from record highs above $50,000 a tonne is set to continue into next year, with the industrial metal likely to plunge well below $10,000 as a global economic downturn bites. But faced with slumping demand from steel mills and new mining projects coming on stream, producers will come out fighting and slash output further to provide a price bounce.

Nickel 3-month contracts in London were trading around $10,100 a tonne on Wednesday, down 80 percent from the all-time high of $51,800 hit in May 2007, and pushing the market to below break-even level for some miners. "At current prices some 50 percent of the nickel industry is losing money - it is not a sustainable situation," said Richard Knights, an analyst at Numis Securities.

"It is all about timing and how quickly operations shut down." The chill wind of recession is to blame for the plunge in nickel prices since 2007, but before the drop, many companies gave new developments the green-light in an attempt to keep up with high demand and record prices. Projects included Vale's massive Goro mine, due to start operating in late October or early November.

At full capacity, the New Caledonia project should yield 60,000 tonnes of nickel a year. Industry estimates put 250,000 tonnes of nickel coming onto the market in the next two years. LME nickel stocks are currently near its highest level since May 1999 and stand at over 55,470 tonnes -- suggesting a large surplus. Royal Bank of Scotland research this month said world finished nickel production was 1.434 million tonnes last year and forecast to fall to 1.415 million tonnes in 2008.

The RBS analysts added that consumption was 1.337 million tonnes last year and forecast to be 1.4 million this year -- an implied surplus of 97,000 tonnes and 15,000 tonnes respectively. The record nickel price triggered substitution by stainless steel mills to lower grade and cheaper alternatives. "On demand, it's difficult to be upbeat about prospects," said Neil Buxton, managing director at GFMS Metals Consulting. "Once a metal has lost market share, it rarely regains it." Average production costs are estimated at $10,500-$11,000 a tonne, and around $15,000 for the highest cost producers. And although priced in dollars, which has recently risen against currencies such as the Australian dollar, nickel producers in those countries won't be shielded from the downturn forever.

"Nickel producers can be forgiven for feeling somewhat schizophrenic about the outlook for their industry," RBS said. "Not so long ago they were enjoying a price environment beyond the dreams of avarice... But now the producers lurk in the shadows... Nickel remains besieged on all sides." CUT ABOVE THE REST But nickel producers are coming out fighting, slashing production to tackle low prices and the wider market slowdown. This week Canada's First Nickel Inc said it suspended production at its Lockerby Mine and cut some 150 jobs.

BHP Billiton Ltd shut down its 100,000 tonne per year Kalgoorlie smelter for four months of repairs during the summer, while Xstrata Plc temporarily suspended operations at its Falconbridge dominicana mine. And despite Chinese economic growth falling below 9 percent in the third quarter, Stephen Barnett, president of the Nickel Institute, remains upbeat on demand. "If that economy continues to grow at the 8-10 percent level, then that drives demand," he said. Barnett, whose institute represents about 85 percent of the nickel industry, also said the threat to prices brought on by more production coming onto the market is overplayed.

"The reality is that it takes 3-5 years to get it up to capacity usually... It will be very unlikely that you're going to get an additional 50-60,000 tonnes appearing on the market," he said. Greener environmental policies from governments will also boost demand, Barnett added, with wind turbines, nuclear power plants and hybrid vehicles all using nickel. "The long-term demand and strength is there," he said. "What you've got is one of those standard ups and downs -- that's called market forces."

[+/-] : China steel industry faces "cost crisis"

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[+/-] : Brazil's Vale: no iron for China if no better price

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Brazil's Vale, one of the world's top three miners, said on Friday that Chinese demand for metals was down sharply but that it wouldn't ship iron ore without a 12 percent price increase.

"Chinese demand is much weaker; there are cuts in steel production there," Fabio Barbosa, chief financial officer, said on a conference call with investors.

Global demand for metals and minerals would weaken further in coming months due to the deepening of the global financial crisis, he said.

"We now face a new global scenario," Barbosa said.

But Vale would not ship iron ore to China without obtaining a 12 percent price increase, which the Chinese have been refusing to pay, Barbosa said.

China is Vale's main market for iron ore and pellets.

Vale would wait for its competitors to sell iron ore cheaply now but expected higher-cost producers to disappear from the market soon.

"Some inefficient suppliers will be out of the market in a few months, next year we'll renegotiate the price in a new environment," Barbosa said.

The company announced net profit on Thursday of $4.8 billion, up 64 percent from the same period last year, on record gross revenues and iron ore sales.

The world's biggest iron ore producer could hold out for a while, said Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnelli.

"We are not pressed to sell our products at any price," Agnelli said.

Agnelli expects a very deep recession of 6-10 months and Barbosa said Chinese demand should begin to recover in the first half of 2009.

"Long-term fundamentals are strong, we are in a pause," he said.

Agnelli said the company is reducing production at some high-cost operations, including a 20 percent cut in nickel output at its Indonesia unit as well as a 65 percent reduction in activity at the company's Dalian processing unit in China.

"We are shutting down our diesel generators in Indonesia, where we are at full capacity, and we will run on hydroelectric. In Dalian, in China, the market practically disappeared," Agnelli said in a news conference on Friday.

Agnelli added that the company would also suspend purchases of iron ore from third party suppliers until world demand improved.

The economic downturn also provided opportunities, Agnelli said.

"Certainly in the future we are going to see a lot of depreciated assets that we can analyze to see whether they fit to our strategy," Agnelli said.

"If it adds value to our shareholders, we are ready to move," he said, adding that acquisitions were currently not a priority for the company.

The company denied rumors this week that it was preparing a renewed proposal to buy a stake in Swiss rival Xstrata.

Vale shares closed down 5.36 percent on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, at 22.05 reais on Friday.

[+/-] : Russia, Vietnam sign energy, alumina deals

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Russian firms Gazprom and United Company RUSAL signed deals on Monday to participate in natural resources projects in Vietnam as the Kremlin aims to triple annual trade between the two countries to $3 billion.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev presided over the signing of the deals, which will involve Gazprom exploring for oil and gas off the Vietnamese coast, during the visit to Moscow of his Vietnamese counterpart, Nguyen Minh Triet.

"The negotiations confirmed the framework for strategic partnership between Russia and Vietnam," Medvedev said after the meeting.

Russia still enjoys close ties with Vietnam formed during the Soviet era. Medvedev said talks had focused on increasing annual trade between the two countries first to $3 billion, and subsequently $10 billion, from over $1 billion in 2007.

He said the countries were prepared jointly to conduct "geological exploration in Vietnam, Russia and third countries".

Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom signed a 30-year agreement with Vietnamese state oil monopoly group Petrovietnam to explore four blocks of Vietnam's continental shelf. Gazprom said in a statement it would finance initial exploration work.

The companies' existing joint venture, Vietgazprom, will carry out the work. It is already exploring off Vietnam's coast.

Separately, the two sides created a new joint venture, Gazpromviet, to work in Russia and third countries. Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Zarubezhneftegaz will own 51 percent and Petrovietnam 49 percent of the joint venture, which will work at the Nagumanosvkoye deposit in Russia's Orenburg region.

The blueprint for Russian-Vietnamese partnership in energy is Vietsovpetro, a joint venture between Petrovietnam and state-owned Zarubezhneft from the 1980s, which produces over 150,000 barrels of oil a day on average from the Bach Ho field.

ALUMINA REFINERY UC RUSAL, the world's largest aluminium producer, signed a memorandum of understanding with Vietnamese company An Vien to build a 1.5 million-tonne-per-year alumina refinery to run on bauxite mined from the Binh Phuoc deposit in southern Vietnam.

UC RUSAL Chief Executive Alexander Bulygin told Reuters at the signing ceremony investment in the bauxite and alumina project was estimated at $1.5 billion. UC RUSAL would hold 51 percent of the joint venture and An Vien 49 percent, he said.

Construction is scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2012 after a preliminary feasibility study is conducted next year and in 2010, UC RUSAL said in a separate statement.

"The Asia-Pacific region will play an important role in UC RUSAL's business development. This MoU on construction of a bauxite and alumina complex is part of our strategy to expand our raw materials base," Bulygin said in the statement.

Vietnam has the world's third-largest explored reserves of bauxite, the raw material from which alumina, and aluminium metal, is made.

UC RUSAL, which produces about 15 percent of the world's alumina, said Binh Phuoc contained about 700 million tonnes of bauxite from a national total in excess of 3 billion tonnes.

Vietnam is also prepared to invest at least $750 million in a $1.5 billion joint venture to build a fertiliser plant in the Russian republic of Kalmykia, the republic's president, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, told reporters after the signing ceremony.

The plant would be built next year and would generate $1 billion in annual sales at today's fertiliser prices, he said.

The Russian and Vietnamese presidents also discussed the participation of several other Russian companies in Vietnam's natural resources, automotive and telecoms sectors.

These companies include steel makers Evraz Group and Mechel, truck maker KamAZ, car producer Gaz and Vimpelcom, Russia's No. 2 mobile phone operator.

[+/-] : Super Molybdenum Stainless Steel Vital to Global Nuclear Reactor Build Up

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[+/-] : China Shen Zhou 2006 net profit up 29% at 1.4 mln usd on non-ferrous sales

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Friday 24 October 2008

[+/-] : Chinese ferromolybdenum suppliers waiting for more buying activities

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[+/-] : Chinese vanadium market still weak

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[+/-] : Manganese supply tightens in China

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Manganese price has been down to around RMB11,000-11,500/t (USD1,608-1,681/t) ex works in domestic market. Sources reported to Asian Metal that as demand from downstream stainless steel mills keeps weak, manganese price moves down all the way but it seems to reach the bottom line. However, as more smelters halted production, manganese supply is tightening. Participants claimed that some smelters start to be reluctant to sell with no profits at all and wait for the market to go stable.
A Hunan-based trader who just purchased 120t of manganese flakes reported that manganese supply in the spot market is not so sufficient after so many smelters cut down production. "As the price falls significantly, the smelters can not maintain any profits and have to halt production," said the source who expects the market supply to keep sliding in the coming weeks. "Even if the demand stays weak, we are sure manganese smelters would try to raise their offers to make some profits."
The source believes that the smelters who have no manganese mines have already been bearing losses after the price dropped to below RMB14,000/t (USD2,047/t) ex works early the month. "The rational price for manganese flakes should be around RMB12,000-12,500/t (USD1,754-1,827/t) ex works currently as the production costs still need time to decrease as well."
The source thinks that some suppliers are getting rid of their stocks at hand and thus push the price much lower day by day. "When these suppliers go out of the market, manganese price would go stable soon as the supply would be tightening up then. At least, the smelters need some profits to keep their business running."
Another Hunan-based smelter running at one third of the capacity of around 20,000tpy told Asian Metal that they can only rely on long-term contracts to keep the production. "Demand is so low that we hardly make any deals for the moment though the price is much low at around RMB11,500/t (USD1,681/t) ex works." The source believes that almost 70% of the production capacity in China is invalid for the moment as most smelters can not maintain any profits at the low price in a range of RMB11,000-12,000/t (USD1,681-1,754/t) ex works.
The source thinks some downstream consumers are still in need of the material though they halted production of steels. "Especially in this fourth quarter, more consumers would cut down production in face of the dull market and dampening financial condition. However, after this round of sell off, manganese price might soon go stable or even rebound slightly according to the demand in the coming two months."
Some traders are reportedly interested in replenishing some stocks at current low prices. Moreover, the provinces in South China would enter the dry season, which might increase the power price and add to the manganese production costs. That might not be a dream for manganese price to go up then. ...
read more

Thursday 23 October 2008

[+/-] : Outstanding niobium, tantalum and uranium drill results, Kanyika – Malawi

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[+/-] : North American Tungsten cancels private placement and strategic deal with Hunan Nonferrous Metals

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[+/-] : Moly Mines tough metal for tough times

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Supply and Demand

Although current molybdenum (moly) production meets demand, refiners, or roasters, are expected to run into a shortfall between 2009 and 2015, depending on demand.

Demand for Molybdenum has been growing at nearly 8% over the past three years. Analysts expect demand to continue growing between 4.5% and 6.0% over the next three years, which is expected to outpace growth in supply and deplete already low inventories.

Over the past ten years, moly compound growth rates have grown from 2% (1997-2001) to 5% (2002-2006). This rapid demand growth is evidenced most notably in steel output, which grew 7.5% in 2007 and is expected to grow nearly that much in 2008.

As moly demand growth has outpaced production, consumers of moly have increasingly turned to inventories of moly to supplement production. In just five years, global moly inventories have fallen from over 6.5 months of production to current levels of 2.7 months. Current inventory levels are expected to fall further as no significant new supply is set to enter the market until the second half of 2009 and other potential suppliers are facing construction delays due to difficult credit markets. At current demand levels, 20-25 million pounds of new molybdenum production must come to market each year to keep pace with market demand.

A roaster processes the molybdenum into a fine powder, pellets, or other forms. Total world molybdenum roaster capacity is currently 320 million pounds per year – this is barely enough to meet demand. There is not much excess roasting capacity, and new permits for the production of any new roasters in the United States looks unlikely.

Global roaster capacity also looks limited, and a future roaster shortage is predicted. [This analysis is predicated on the assumption that mines will be able to increase output].
Pipelines and nuclear reactors

Western demand is projected to increase by around 3 percent annually, while China and the CIS demand is projected to increase by around 10 percent annually, increasing overall global demand by around 4.5-5.0 percent annually.

Increasing demand can be attributed to two main factors. Hydroprocessing catalysts are becoming essential for crude oil. The other contributing factor is the increase in nuclear reactor construction.
Increasing demand for oil and electricity by Asian economies such as China and India from 2010 and beyond will require more pipelines being built and new reactors to be developed.

One very important source of ongoing demand growth for molybdenum is the petroleum industry that has unlocked previously sub economic reserves of sour gas and oils. The worldwide search for new oil supplies and the extension of existing reserves by drilling deeper and further off-shore should continue to stimulate demand for molybdenum. Extracting, transporting and refining of oil and gas, requires significant amounts of corrosion resistant molybdenum steels.

There are 48 nuclear reactors planned to be built by 2013, and approximately 100 are to be built by 2020. The International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) says that an average reactor contains about 520,000 feet (160,000 m) of stainless steel alloy. Some larger reactors contain over 1 million feet of stainless steel alloy.

As the chart shows, the moly price has remained solidly at US$33.50 and at high levels despite the fall in other commodity prices. Given the outlook for demand/supply for moly, this is not surprising. That said, we wouldn't be surprised to see some tapering off of the price in the short term before climbing again in 2009/10.

Moly companies listed on stock exchange

Pure molybdenum plays on the ASX, where molybdenum is mined as a principal ore, are few and far between given the mining of molybdenum is recovered as a byproduct of copper and tungsten mining. Even fewer are opportunities for sleuths of emerging molybdenum producers.

Moly Mines Limited (ASX/TSX:MOL, FWB:HJI) has strong aspirations and potential to be one of the top ten producers of molybdenum in the world with its Spinifex Ridge Project in the Pilbara in Western Australia.

The massive Spinifex Ridge deposit boasts a 451 million tonne resource grading 0.05% molybdenum and 0.08% copper, and a potential 23-year, 20 million tonne per annum mining operation.
So far, Moly Mines has managed to tick just about every box since inception.

Two factors have slowed its progress. The credit squeeze and the amount of capital required (A$1.2 billion) to bring its Spinifex Ridge Project to fruition.

That said, Moly Mines has showed mighty resilience, raising US$150 million in quasi debt interim finance last month. This was a herculean achievement after when most commentators, analysts, some fund managers and media had written off its prospects of raising additional capital in current markets.
(Ahead of a larger piece we will write on Moly Mines), we believe the importance of the Spinifex Ridge project to the molybdenum market, the quality of its stakeholders, the large shareholder and new backers should be enough encouragement for Moly Mines holders to stay the course.

For would be investors, we would continue to keep a close watch on Moly Mines for future news.

Moly Mines was last trading at A$0.65
[Acknowledgement to Moly Mines, General Moly, Rio Tinto , Roca Mines for use of data].

Other Moly companies

Columbia Yukon (TSX.V:CYU) is a Canadian mineral exploration company focused on the development of its Storie Molybdenum Property deposit located in northern British Columbia, 5km south of the former Cassiar Mine townsite. Indicated resource of molybdenum approximately 98 million tonnes grading 0.064% Mo.

Ovoca Gold Plc (AIM:OVG.L, Frankfurt OVX.GR) with its The Pellapahk molybdenum-copper deposit in Russia. The Russian P1 category resource for this prospect of 300 million tonnes at 0.06% molybdenum, 0.25% copper and 0.08 grammes per tonne gold.

Zamia Gold Limited (ASX:ZGM) A molybdenum (Mo) deposit was discovered in early 2008 at Zamia's Anthony Prospect in Central Queensland, Australia. The drilling results are showing extensive mineralisation with grades up to 1920 ppm (part per million) Mo. With mineralisation open in all directions, this could potentially become a world-class porphyry style deposit. – Proactive Investors Australia

[+/-] : China reduces rare metals export quota for 2009

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[+/-] : Commodity prices cut, but dramatic rebound may follow

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Slowing growth in China and a recession in the developed world means metal markets are much more likely to move into significant surpluses in 2009 and 2010. As a result, RBC Capital Markets has made widespread cuts to its commodity price forecasts – everything from iron ore and coal to uranium and copper.

The firm's analysts said in a report:

A dramatic rebound in growth in China based on continuing urbanization and infrastructure building could pull commodities out of this downturn more quickly and dramatically than in previous cycles.

However, they believe commodity prices will remain under pressure during the next 12 months.

While the huge sell-off, attractive valuations and seasonal effects could support a rally in mining stocks before the end of 2008, RBC does not think one can be sustained until global economic conditions improve. As a result, it continues to like bulk commodities like coal, iron ore and uranium over the metals.

It also sees an opportunity emerging in molybdenum given that current conditions could produce project delays that could keep the market tight despite weakening demand.

RBC is forecasting a rebound in demand in 2010 based on the average recovery following the past six recessions since 1960. For example, while aluminium prices declined 5.1% annually on average during a recession, it rebounded 6.8% in the following year. Copper saw a decline of 3.0% and a gain of 7.3%, respectively. Nickel also dipped 3.0% but then rose 9.4%, while zinc fell 4.9% and then saw a subsequent 5.2% recovery.

While spot iron ore prices have plunged recently, RBC expects steel activity in China to remain subdued into the middle of 2009. As a result, it sees contract prices falling 10% next year.

For uranium, the global economic crisis likely led to the selling of much of the material held by speculators like hedge funds, bringing spot prices down even further. RBC analysts believe the current price is too low to encourage sufficient new mine development and has cut speculative potential supply from its forecast. This has produced forecasts for balanced markets from 2009 to 2011, followed by two years of surplus. Strong deficits are expected a few years after that. – Seeking Alpha

[+/-] : Pangang vanadium and titanium project starts construction

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[+/-] : Prairie Downs Metals exploration update

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The directors of Prairie Downs Metals Limited (ASX:PDZ) are pleased to provide an update on the current exploration activities being undertaken at the Prairie Downs Base Metal Project ("Project").

COSTEAN SEVEN PROSPECT

Assay results received from the recent first drill program at Costean Seven have confirmed the existence of mineralisation derived from diamond drilling near surface. All holes were mineralized to varying degrees with respect to copper, lead, zinc and silver. Mineralisation is zoned. Intermittent narrow intersections variably graded up to 19.5% Pb, 0.9% Cu, 7.6% Zn and 245ppm Ag. Schedule one attached to this release details the most significant drill results to date at Costean Seven. These results demonstrate the continuation of base metals mineralisation over 3.7 kilometres.

VANADIUM MINERALISATION

Earlier in the year the Company undertook a detailed mapping program at the Project to provide geotechnical data and to gain a better understanding of the geology. Initial analysis using a Niton XL3T handheld XRF machine indicated the existence of significant vanadium mineralisation in association with barite. Analysis of surface samples collected has been completed which confirms the existence of vanadium mineralisation yielding grades greater than 1% V2O5 over 3.7 kilometres of strike length.

Grades greater than 1% are rarely achieved in a mining scenario. Windimurra mine produced vanadium at an average grade of 0.46% vanadium. Other Australian projects at an advanced stage include Barrambie (Reed Resources 0.8% V2O5), Balla Balla (Aurox Resources 0.65% V2O5 and 45% Fe) and Bigrlyl (Energy Metals Ltd 0.19% V2O5 and 0.17% U3O8).

Internationally, production from from the Bushveld Complex averages 1.5% V2O5 from many operations held by Xstrata and Highveld steel. This constitutes approximately 45% of world production. Mount Kachkanar, Gusevogorsk and Pervoural'sk in Russia, contain approximately 0.5% V2O5 and are operated by Nizhny Tagil Iron and Steel Works and the Chusovskoy Metallurgical Works. Largo Resources in Brazil reports production from a reserve grading 1.35% V2O5..

Vanadium enriched carbonitised volcaniclastics and a barite unit are unconformably juxtaposed with Zn/Pb/Ag mineralisation, in veins hosted by mafic intrusives and volcanics. The carbonistised volcaniclastics and barite cap, outcrop over approximately 4 kilometres. Vandium grades above detection limits (>1%), as proffered by an independent laboratory (ALS Laboratory). Absolute vanadium concentrations are not reportable due to the specialised nature of the samples and very high grade. At this stage preliminary investigations suggest the vanadium to be extractible by conventional methods.

Preliminary and independent mineralogical analysis by "Roger Townend and Associates", described samples as mottramite and vanadinite (both of which are vanadium ore minerals) in spatial association with copper minerals such as chalcocite, malachite, covellite, bornite, digenite and chalcopyrite, in addition to barite.

In view of the high grades encountered in the preliminary work described above, the Company has commissioned a mineralogical study in relation to vanadium, and is investigating metallurgical studies.

RESOURCE DRILLING

A multi-purpose drill rig has recently completed pre-collars targeting depth and strike extensions to the current 4.7 million tonne zinc resource. A total of 25 pre-collars have been now been completed to be followed by diamond tails. Initial results are expected in mid-late November.

The primary objective of the current drill program is to increase the high grade resource to underpin at least five years of high grade production. Once this initial program of drilling has been completed, the exploration focus will initially concentrate on further assessment of the various copper, vanadium, zinc and lead zones, which includes Costean Seven and Kerr's Find, and cover a strike length of some 5 kilometres.

About PRAIRIE DOWNS METALS LIMITED

Listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX:PDZ) and based in Perth, Prairie Downs Metals Limited is exploring and developing high grade zinc, lead and copper deposits at the Prairie Downs project in Western Australia. – Press Release

[+/-] : Hubei closes Vanadium plants as skin disease spreads

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Four unlicensed Vanadium plants have been closed in Hubei Province, after media reports of a skin disease spreading among local villagers. The plants were located in the townships of Sanzhou, Rongcheng and Chiba in Jianli County.

"Since the Vanadium plant opened there has been a vile smell in the house. When the wind comes from the south it makes you vomit. The kids cough every morning. And it's not just the coughing, my face is always inflamed and itchy after working in the cotton fields," said villager Zhu Yan.

Nobody dares to pick cotton any more; villagers with land near the plants all have the same symptoms, said another resident, Xu Boping.

The Jianli government said it closed a Vanadium oxide smelter in April 2006 but recently a small number of people had illegally reestablished smelting plants in remote towns and villages. The business is hugely profitable according to the government.

This June, after a tip-off, the government launched an investigation, and discovered 10 plants either already complete, or under construction. None of these plants had applied for an environmental assessment as required by law and most were using outdated technology that emits chlorine gas, chlorine hydride gas, waste water, and slag, all of which cause serious pollution.

In September, the county government cancelled the business licenses of the 10 plants, cut off electricity supplies and sealed their premises. But four of the plants tore off the government seals and restarted production.

In the afternoon on September 14, the Jianli government held an emergency meeting and decided to demolish the four illegal factories. Lin Zhixiong, the vice magistrate of Jianli county, said managers of the four plants had been arrested and their bank accounts frozen.

Meanwhile the health department said that experts had so far not proven a link between the Vanadium plants and the local farmers' skin infections. Investigations into the cause of the skin complaints are ongoing. – China Internet Information Center

[+/-] : flame retardant masterbatch

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Wednesday 22 October 2008

[+/-] : Chinese vanadium market summary Oct 6-10

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[+/-] : Chinese vanadium market summary Sep 16-19

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[+/-] : Market of nickel oxide ore sees no good sign

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[+/-] : Chinese vanadium market summary Sep 8-12

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[+/-] : Medium Carbon Ferromanganese

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[+/-] : Deutsche Bank Cuts Metal Price Forecasts on Economic Outlook

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[+/-] : GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks recover, but economy fears loom

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HONG KONG, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Most Asian stock markets rallied on Monday, with valuations growing more attractive, and oil prices rose ahead of an expected supply cut at an emergency OPEC meeting this week, but a threat of global recession haunted investors.

The cautious buying of equities did not translate into a move out of government bonds, with Japanese government bond futures climbing and U.S. Treasury futures nearly unchanged on the day, suggesting investors were still reluctant to take risks.

Governments around the world rushed out further steps to help the private sector, pledging so far well in excess of $3 trillon to try to stabilise financial markets and resuscitate the banking industry which has been badly damaged by a crisis of confidence.

South Korea promised $130 billion in state guarantees and capital injections and the Dutch government said it would prop up ING with around 10 billion euros.

"A slew of recent policy actions worldwide has provided some relief to the banking sectors in the major economies," said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist at Shinko Securities in Tokyo. "But the state of the market remains very fragile with worries mounting about the global economy and emerging markets," Suzuki said.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> rose 1.2 percent. The index suffered a seventh consecutive week of losses last week and remains down 52 percent so far this year.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 2.2 percent, but is down 17.3 percent so far this month.

Japan's Nikkei average edged up 0.5 percent, though it is down 19 percent in October.

South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.9 percent, weighed down by stocks with large exposure to global economic trends such as Hyundai Heavy Industries <009540.KS> and steel maker POSCO <005490.KS>.

Shares of brokerage Mirae Asset Securities <037620.KS>, which has a focus on emerging markets, were down 15 percent on market talk of a possible downgrade.

The Korean government's rescue package modestly pushed up the won against the U.S. dollar, but analysts said the steps would unlikely be strong enough to reverse what has become a fierce downtrend in global equity markets.

"Korea remains particularly vulnerable to the global credit squeeze/deleveraging, and the economy is doomed to decelerate significantly along with the global recession," Calyon strategists said in a note.

SHORT-TERM HAVEN

Last week investors continued to pull their money out of emerging market equity markets and stash it in short-term money markets. However, Europe equity funds saw a net $2.1 billion in fresh money, the biggest inflow since the third week of April, after some action by European leaders to shore up the financial system, according to EPFR Global.

Money market funds were the biggest magnet for equity capital, absorbing a record $44.4 billion for the week, the Boston-based firm that tracks $10 trillion in assets said in a note.

Oil prices edged up after tumbling around $36 in the last three days in anticipation of a severe pullback in demand. U.S. crude futures for November delivery rose $1 to $72.87 a barrel after plumbing the lowest since July on Friday.

Gold jumped more than 2 percent, as raw materials prices rebounded, following oil's rise. Gold in the spot market was trading at $794.45 an ounce, up from Friday, when it hit a one-month low of $771.30 as a lack of confidence in the financial system and a U.S. dollar rally ignited heavy liquidation by commodity funds.

The yen fell against the euro and the Australian dollar on Monday as a crisis summit planned for next month helped the market to regain some stability and prompted investors to pick up the recently battered currencies.

But analysts said safety demand for the low-yielding yen was also intact as worries grew about deteriorating financial conditions in emerging markets after Iceland, Ukraine and Pakistan asked for aid to prop up their economies, slowing the yen's fall.

The U.S. dollar was trading at 101.65 yen , nearly flat from late New York trade on Friday when more bleak U.S. data stoked fears that the credit crisis had knocked the economy into recession and pushed Wall Street shares down.

The euro rose 0.3 percent against the yen to 136.73 yen after dipping as much as 0.3 percent in early Asian trade.

Japanese government bond futures rose from a three-month low hit earlier as signs of improvement in the strained money market spurred investor buying.

December 10-year futures <2JGBv1> rose 0.55 point to 136.30 after initially sliding to a three-month low of 135.47 on the gains in stocks. (Additional reporting by Satomi Noguchi in TOKYO)

[+/-] : Firm dollar, Chinese growth concerns hit US copper

poster:jiefu Metal Supplier date: 02:00:00 0 feedback:

NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. copper futures shed nearly 3 percent by the close on Monday as a stronger dollar and concerns about slowing Chinese growth prospects sparked further liquidation in the market, analysts said.

* Copper for December delivery HGZ8 settled down 6.30 cents, or 2.9 percent, at $2.1165 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division.

* The session range widened to $2.0970-$2.2645.

* On the charts, initial support in the benchmark December contract pegged at $2.04, followed by the psychological $2.00 level. Resistance eyed at last week's high at $2.5295 - traders.

* Spot October HGV8 fell 6.20 cents to close at $2.1190.

* COMEX estimated futures volume at 10,517 lots by 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT). Final volume on Friday totaled 13,806 lots.

* Open interest rose by 262 lots to 83,453 open contracts as of Oct. 17.

* Copper's losses tied to a U.S. dollar rebound against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress endorsing another stimulus plan for the sluggish economy. [ID:nWEQ000308]

* In afternoon trade in New York, the euro was down 0.8 percent at $1.33 <EUR=>, near its session lows around $1.3287.

* A stronger U.S. currency tends to make dollar-priced metals less attractive to non-U.S. investors.

* Copper's weaker tone on Monday rooted in bearish macro-economic data from China, the world's leading metals consumer.

* China's annual GDP growth fell to 9.0 percent in the third quarter from 10.1 percent in the second, and factory output sank to a six-year low.

* China's September copper production rose 4.7 percent on the year to 317,000 tonnes. September copper output dropped 1 percent from August - The state bureau.

* Soft economic outlook forced Deutsche Bank to cut its commodity forecasts, trimming about 40 percent from its 2009 forecast for copper to just $4,161.

* Credit Suisse lowered its copper forecast from $4.00 to $2.50 per pound ($5,512 a tonne).

* "We now expect global GDP growth to slow to 1.2 percent in 2009. We expect energy and industrial metals will be the major casualties in this environment." - Deutsche Bank.

* London Metal Exchange (LME) copper warehouse stocks rose by 950 tonnes to 212,400 tonnes on Monday.

* COMEX copper stocks were off 177 short tons at 8,165 short tons as of Friday.

* Speculators trimmed their net short position in COMEX copper futures to 18,127 lots in the week ended Oct. 14, from 18,799 lots the previous week - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

* LME copper for three months delivery MCU3 was last quoted at $4,720/4,730 a tonne, after dealing in a session range of $4,661 and $4,950.

[+/-] : Gold Declines in London as Dollar Advances, Equities Climb

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Monday 20 October 2008

[+/-] : Nickel market seen in surplus until mid-2009

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October 14, 2008: It is likely that the world nickel market would continue to be in surplus until the middle of 2009, opined an executive in the world's largest nickel producer OAO Norilsk Nickel.

According to a foreign news agency report the Deputy Director-General Viktor Sprogis said after that the market would return closer to balance. However he felt that it would take a some time for the demand to improve in the face of the present financial crisis.

"Where prices currently are, that surplus will vanish and (the market will) become more balanced," he said, stated the report. It would be worthwhile to note that prices of nickel on the London Metal Exchange have declined heavily recently and are at present nearly 75 percent less from their May 2007 high of $51,800 a ton at $12,800 per ton.

The report informed that the company is at present not planning any reduction in its production operations. However, Sprogis said it is likely that other companies would be forced to reduce output.

"Producers are in a difficult position. They are currently in discussion on what to do. They are discussing 2009 plans and the possibility of closures," he said. "We think we will be the last company to cut production," he added, stated the report.

He further added that a substantial amount of the material produced depends on prices which are above current levels and some operations require prices which are above $20,000 per ton. "If prices stay lower, we will see (output) cuts," Sprogis said stated the report.

While the low prices are likely to compel companies to curtail projects demand of stainless steel would react to a global slowdown and it is likely that it would require more than a few months for demand to recover.

"We assume certain stagnation and that we will face certain problems," Sprogis said. "It will take time - we are talking years, not months. Demand will recover, it is just a question of time." However a lot depends on economic and psychological sentiment of the markets, he said.

In the present situation the supply and demand fundamentals will be of importance priority, opined Norilsk economist David Humphreys. Sprogis added that the supply and demand fundamentals will make it more difficult to negotiate with customers.

"We do not expect this market to be easy for us to negotiate with our customers," he said. "There is reason to expect the amount delivered to customers long-term to be lower. Today, not everyone is willing to take long-term contracts."

Sprogis opined that customers are likely to go for short-term contracts, stated the report.

Source: Sourcing Insights Bureau

[+/-] : Ferrophosphorous prices decrease slightly in China

poster:jiefu Metal Supplier date: 17:41:00 0 feedback:

[+/-] : molybdenum market summary Oct 13-17

poster:jiefu Metal Supplier date: 17:38:00 0 feedback:

With demand remaining weak in Chinese ferromolybdenum market, participants stop lowering offers sharply this week, and the market appears generally stable. Offers for ferromolybdenum slip slightly to RMB200,000-205,000/t (USD48.88-50.1/kg), down by about RMB5,000/t (USD1.22/kg) compared with that the previous weekend, while offers for molybdenum concentrate slide to around RMB2,700/mtu (USD17.96/lb). However, low prices are seen in the market, though major suppliers claim that they offer high prices. Some deals for ferromolybdenum are reportedly concluded at around RMB190,000/t (USD46.43/kg), and a major consumer purchased ferromolybdenum at below RMB190,000/t (USD46.43/kg) in the weekend.
Seeing the slow steel market, Chinese ferromolybdenum market has little chance to recover in the near future. Meanwhile, because the price of molybdenum concentrate is getting close to the mining cost, participants believe that the price decrease would be limited in the future.
Meanwhile, the export market generally stalls. As European molybdenum market dropped by over USD5/kg for ferromolybdenum, few people are interested in purchasing. Traders are under the pressure of credit obligation, dumping inventories for cash. Few buyers dare to purchase materials for prompt shipment, while few deals of molybdenum oxide 57% were concluded at USD28-29/lb. Insiders believe the price of ferromolybdenum would fall to USD60/kg or below with firm enquiries.
Molybdate market keeps slipping. Prices for grade-one ammonium tetramolybdate decreased to around RMB200,000/t (USD29.33/kg), while some deals were reportedly concluded at a little bit higher than RMB190,000/t (USD27.86/kg). The market is so slow that many smelters have halted production
Molybdenum products market is chaotic with all kinds of offers appearing in the market. Participants lament about the falling prices in both domestic and overseas markets, and the price of wrought molybdenum bar is getting close to USD60/kg.

[+/-] : UBS: steel output may drop 11 percent in October

poster:jiefu Metal Supplier date: 17:37:00 0 feedback:

[+/-] : Asian manganese ore price drops sharply

poster:jiefu Metal Supplier date: 17:36:00 0 feedback:

Item	specification
Appearance	column
Colour	white
Density g/cm³	1.42
Particle size mm	2-4
Main content %	55-60
Basal material	PA6

Antimony trioxide,Flame retardant masterbatch,Additive Masterbatches

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[+/-] : Antimony ingot