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Friday, 1 August 2008

Magnesium market expected to keep low

Weak demand continues to hinder the magnesium ingot market from recovering in China. Coupled with the high stockpiles, participants take negative expectations on the future market.
A Shanxi-based smelter, with the capacity of 10,000tpy, cut its output by 1/3 due to the sluggish market. "RMB26,000/t ex works is our bottom line," said the source. "However, few consumers would like to accept such a price."
The source attributes the continuously decreasing prices to the weak demand and oversupply. As long as the market keeps softening, consumers will not resume purchasing. "That's the rule," added the source.
The source holds some stocks on hand and is busy conducting sales for fear that the market may dip further. He learnt that lower prices of RMB25,300-25,500/t ex works have shown up in Fugu, Shaanxi.
A Henan-based trader reported that the trading volume shrank to 100-200tpm in June and July against 400-500tpm in the previous months. "What troubles us most is lack of demand," said the source. "Most consumers are waiting for lower prices."
The source thinks that besides the weak demand in domestic market, the fact that foreign buyers are also sitting on the sidelines is also having negative impact on the magnesium market. As many overseas buyers had considered fully the impact of Beijing Olympics, so they made bulk purchase in advance for the production during and immediately after the Olympic Game.
The source confirmed that although major smelters still insist on the price of around RMB26,000/t ex works, more others have started to sell materials at RMB25,700-25,800/t ex works or even lower prices this week.Both sources are pessimistic about the future market, believing that the price will continue to dip in the following two or three months.

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