Nickel Price Outlook Mixed Although Fundamentals Improve

LONDON, Aug. 14 -- Nickel has been one of the biggest sufferers in the global commodity price meltdown, with its price falls preceding, and being longer lived, than those for many other base metals. But this year it has been making a bit of a comeback fuelled by investment demand and huge Chinese imports, and now, as the stainless steel market is seeing some signs of a return, by better fundamentals.

Nickel really took a knock from its peak price levels of around $24/lb achieved in April/May 2007 and the story was downwards from that time onwards until prices bottomed below $5/lb right at the end of last year. After plateauing until around April it has been making fairly steady progress since and now stands at over $9.00/lb, which is perhaps still not yet sufficient to bring some of the idled capacity back on line, but enough to encourage lower cost new projects like Mirabela in Brazil and most significantly Koniambo in New Caledonia to move ahead and the massive Goro, also in New Caledonia, is now also in operation so supply considerations are very relevant here and will probably put a cap on any major further advances.

But perhaps the most significant factor is the sign of recovery in the stainless steel sector, led by China, as with most other metals and minerals. This now appears to be spilling over to Japan and Europe, and much of the recent price surge has been from investment demand encouraged by the perception of this recovery in stainless steel output being maintained.

Now, LME nickel stocks, which had built to very high levels and had been a big drag on the price, are seen to be reducing slightly and have thus been another price supporter, although the size of these stocks gives some cause for concern still, representing over seven weeks of world consumption.

What may also be a cause for concern in the nickel markets has been that a large segment of demand over the past few months has been from China where considerable restocking has been taking place. Chinese imports have been running hugely above levels seen at any time in the past and with talk that restocking programmes may be ending there, there could be some impact on prices.  But, to an extent the Western and Japanese consumers had been destocking and it is now their turn to restock, although it is not certain that the extent of this will make up for a possible fall in Chinese restocking demand.

In its recent Base Metals Forecasting Monthly, GFMS is also relatively cautious on prices over the next few months, with the note that the nickel price has now risen sufficiently to bring it up past the marginal production cost for much of the world's idled capacity, which could put a bit of a cap on prices in the short to medium term.  Consequently the metals analysis consultancy is looking to a price range of from just below $7 to around a little over $10/lb over the next four months.

Whether the actual price remains at the upper or lower end of this range though may well depend on the longevity of the current miner's strike at Vale Inco's Sudbury and Voisey's Bay operations. Vale may not be in a rush to settle given the state of the market, although if the price moves up further then the incentive for settlement will increase.

But like the whole base metals sector, forward price prediction remains difficult and dependent on the true state of the global economy and whether the 'green shoots' being seized upon by politicians, economists and the media are for real, or just a mirage.  There are signs that China may be pulling in the reins a little on its highly effective stimulation programmes and while the Western World does seem, on the face of things, to be turning the corner, some analysts also see this as a false dawn.

Whatever the situation, nickel may be one of the more vulnerable of the industrial metals to any stuttering in the perceived upturn,  It could well maintain current pricing levels as long as the economy continues to recover, but sharp price increases above current levels could see, as we mentioned above, idled capacity coming back on line - and there is always the twin spectre of the Chinese pig nickel sector, and substitution in stainless steel, overhanging the market which will put an ultimate cap on price. The stock position needs to be watched - and a continued fall in LME stocks will be a positive sign but so far the stock falls have been small